Why Churchill Capital Corp IV (CCIV) Inventory is Down 60% Since Lucid Merger


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The SPAC’s extremely inflated worth deflated abruptly, however this may very well be excellent news for Lucid IPO patrons.

Particular objective acquisition firms, or SPACs, have been the newest funding fad for a while now, with individuals investing within the IPO-focused shell firms enabling different firms to fast-track the funding wanted to go public.

One of many massive tales in SPACs proper now could be Churchill Capital Corp IV, or CCIV (NYSE: CCIV), the shares of which spiked to astronomical valuation, but have since plunged almost 60% following its merger with Lucid Motors simply two weeks in the past.

One thing clearly went badly unsuitable with the SPAC mannequin within the case of CCIV and Lucid. What was it, and what does it imply for different SPACs?


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Why CCIV Inventory Rose So Excessive

Enthusiasm about electrical automotive shares drove the large upward spike in CCIV’s share worth final month, as traders tried to get in on the bottom ground of what they imagined to be the subsequent Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA). Retail traders pumped money into the SPAC, making its share worth soar to $63.20 on Feb. 18, and stay as excessive as $60.86 on Feb. 22, the day earlier than the merger and crash.

At that time, CCIV, Lucid, and analysts favorable to the businesses have been evaluating the electrical car (EV) enterprise to Tesla overtly, although Lucid has no precise merchandise and has no means earned a cent of income way of retail gross sales. CEO Peter Rawlinson claimed in a Feb. Four interview with Forbes his first unbiased automotive design, the Lucid Air, will outdo the efficiency of the Tesla Mannequin S.

Rawlinson, who beforehand labored for Tesla because the maverick electrical automotive firm’s chief engineer, says the Air will speed up from zero to 60 in two seconds and drives 517 miles on one cost. He additionally mentioned Lucid is mimicking Tesla’s market technique providing a high-end $164,000 mannequin first, to be adopted inside 5 years mass-market autos costing within the neighborhood of $45,000. He added he previously thought of SPACs a “soiled phrase,” remarking “what a distinction a 12 months makes.”

But, instantly after CCIV introduced the merger with Lucid, its shares plunged 43% in a single day of selloffs. The drop has continued at a slower tempo since, with CCIV’s shares down from the pre-announcement determine of roughly 59% at market open at the moment.

Why CCIV Has Plunged Since Its Merger

We’ve created a full Lucid Motors inventory hub that has lots of the particulars surrounding their plunge if you’d like extra in-depth studying on the topic.

Nonetheless, the important thing concept to bear in mind is valuation. The day the phrases of the merger have been introduced, it was revealed that post-merger Lucid would have 1.6 billion shares excellent. Which means at CCIV’s peak share worth of $63.20, the implied market capitalization of Lucid Motors was greater than $101 billion.

That prime valuation might have shocked many traders who had seen headlines previous to CCIV’s merger announcement that Lucid was being valued at $12 billion within the merger transaction. Nonetheless, keep in mind that when acquisition firms like CCIV commerce for greater than $10 per share, that typically means they’re being traded at a premium.

So, whereas Lucid Motor’s presentation saying the deal said the corporate was valued at ‘lower than 2%’ of Tesla, that worth was on the funding valuation.

In the meantime freely traded shares of CCIV had risen sufficient to worth Lucid Motors at greater than 10% of Tesla, which is a wealthy valuation for an organization that hasn’t produced a single automotive.

The SPAC Classes to Take Away from CCIV

On the finish of the day, Michael Klein’s CCIV traded at what we now know was a $100 billion valuation for Lucid. Evaluating this valuation to established automotive firms reveals Ford Motor Firm (NYSE: F) has a market cap of $48.eight billion, Basic Motors Company (NYSE: GM) boasts a market cap of $77.Four billion, and fellow EV startup Nikola Company (NASDAQ: NKLA) is valued at simply $5.eight billion.

There are three vital takeaways for any traders who’ve been following this saga.

1.) Keep in mind that the “reported” particulars about SPAC offers can differ enormously when remaining merger agreements are introduced. For instance, Lucid was valued at a professional forma valuation of $24 billion, which was greater than early press experiences of the merger. Additionally, particulars like remaining share depend post-merger can have enormous implications post-merger announcement. It’s possible many CCIV traders didn’t notice what number of shares excellent (1.6 billion) would exist post-merger. This greater share depend led to a market cap that was greater than anticipated and contributed to CCIV’s post-merger sell-off.

2.) One set off for the plunge seems to be Lucid’s assertion its first automotive launch will now be delayed till someday in 2021’s second half.

3.) Electrical automotive firms, typically, have bought off not too long ago. Tesla is now about 37% off its peak. Many retail traders have rushed into the house primarily based on well-founded optimism about electrical car gross sales progress, however when nearly each firm within the house is seeking to shortly go public, it’s a tell-tale signal that the house is getting frothy with hypothesis.

Does this imply CCIV is a promote at the moment? Not essentially.

Volvo simply introduced final week it intends to go totally electrical 2030 and half of its gross sales might be EVs 2025. I imagine that the majority mainstream estimates for electrical vehicles will show conservative.

Lucid clearly has promising know-how, a robust management workforce, and the curiosity of hundreds of thousands of potential automotive patrons. Nonetheless, it was additionally a painful lesson for a lot of traders on the unknowns that exist whenever you put money into SPAC firms previous to merger agreements being introduced that spell out the complete particulars on precisely what you personal.

The subsequent blockbuster IPO?

2021 may very well be one of many largest years for IPOs in inventory market historical past. But, with only a small fraction of IPOs traditionally driving almost all of the income, who will you belief to uncover probably the most revolutionary and high-upside IPOs within the coming months?

There’s an organization that “known as” these companies lengthy earlier than they hit it massive. They first beneficial Netflix in 2004 at $1.85 per share, Amazon in 2002 at $15.31 per share, and Apple again within the iPod Shuffle period at $4.97 per share. Have a look the place they’re now.

That firm: The Motley Idiot.

For individuals able to make investing a part of their technique for monetary freedom, check out The Motley Idiot’s flagship investing service, Inventory Advisor. They only introduced their prime 10 “finest buys now” throughout the whole inventory market. Whether or not you’re beginning with $100, $500, or extra, you need to take a look at the complete particulars.

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