Retired astronaut Mark Kelly posted a +3.6 VAR in Arizona in defeating appointed GOP incumbent Martha McSally. With a -2.Three VAR, McSally truly improved on her 2018 efficiency, when she misplaced the state’s different Senate seat to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and had a -Four VAR.
In Colorado, former Gov. John Hickenlooper earned a +3.6 VAR towards Republican Sen. Cory Gardner. Coming into the 2020 election cycle, GOP strategists had been assured in Gardner’s means to overperform the highest of the ticket sufficient to win his second statewide race. Not solely did Gardner publish a modest +0.2 VAR in his preliminary 2014 race towards Democratic Sen. Mark Udall, he slipped to a -1.7 VAR in 2020.
And at last in Georgia, Democrats Raphael Warnock (+5 VAR) and Jon Ossoff (+4.6) had stable performances within the Jan. 5 runoffs that secured management of the Senate for his or her occasion. Compared, GOP Sens. Kelly Loeffler (-4.1 VAR) and David Perdue (-3.7) underperformed the typical Republican candidate.
Some of us level to Joe Biden’s victory over Trump in Georgia in November as a solution to undersell Warnock’s and Ossoff’s worth as candidates. However that fails to think about eight years of Republicans successful statewide races in Georgia, which is accounted for within the Baseline metric.
The lone Republican takeover was in Alabama, the place Democratic Sen. Doug Jones had a +1.2 VAR. That was far lower than his +10.5 VAR within the 2017 particular election, when Jones received to run with a extra favorable citizens and towards embattled GOP nominee Roy Moore. In 2020, Republican Tommy Tuberville earned a mediocre -1.1 VAR within the race, however that was greater than sufficient in a state with a GOP Baseline of 62.2 p.c.