Tremendous Bowl Betting Information: Unfold, moneyline, over/below, participant props picks

The Tremendous Bowl is simply two days away, however there’s nonetheless loads of time to throw some cash down on what must be essentially the most heavily-bet sporting occasion in historical past. Bettors far and extensive are wanting on the defending-champion Chiefs and the new-look Buccaneers and selecting aside the 20 weeks that led to this matchup. Everybody can be in search of angles, whether or not they guess towards the unfold, on the moneyline, or on the over/below totals (or participant props!).

Each week of the 2020 NFL season, this column has offered an in depth breakdown of our favourite bets, weaving in an prolonged preview of unique knowledge from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere glimpse of all that BetQL provides. Examine us out now to disclose our full betting predictions for the Tremendous Bowl, together with projections, participant props, and finest guess rankings from our NFL Finest Guess Mannequin.

Final spherical, I went three-for-three with my Finest Bets, thanks largely to the plentiful sources at my disposal on Maintain studying to see my Finest Bets for Tremendous Bowl Sunday, and end the NFL season in type making some money with me.

All knowledge offered is as of Friday morning. You possibly can monitor all NFL line motion on BetQL’s Line Motion Dashboard.

SUPER BOWL DFS: High valuesFanDuel | DraftKings

Tremendous Bowl Betting Picks: Unfold decide of the week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) vs. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs

Betting on Tom Brady and the Bucs +3.5 labored out so nicely for me in Inexperienced Bay two weeks in the past, I’m doubling down. Now, Tampa Bay presently sits +3, so you’ll have to purchase the half-point (making it -130 as a substitute of EVEN), however I feel it’s the perfect play you may make towards the unfold.

I’m not assured the Buccaneers will win the sport outright as a result of Patrick Mahomes and his weapons have seemingly confirmed themselves too dominant to outscore. Hell, Mahomes has only one loss over his previous 26 begins. Nonetheless, I’m assured that Brady can orchestrate an in depth sport, particularly contemplating the Bucs are the primary staff in Tremendous Bowl historical past to play the massive sport of their residence stadium.

Simply take a look at the outstanding feats each quick and long-term Brady. In case you embody his three playoff video games, no one has handed for extra gross yards for the reason that 2020 NFL season kicked off (5,493). His 47 complete passing TDs in that span trails solely Aaron Rodgers, and he has an NFL-leading 28 passing TDs in away/impartial video games. That final stat doesn’t play, for the reason that large sport is at Raymond James, nevertheless it does illustrate how wholesome his clutch gene stays at 43 years younger. Oh, and there’s additionally the truth that he has six Tremendous Bowl rings in 9 appearances. Even his largest critics ought to agree at this level: He’s the G.O.A.T.

Even when Brady doesn’t earn his seventh Lombardi Trophy, he has the offensive weapons to maintain the Bucs shut. He has Chris Godwin, who has emerged as his favourite receiver, with 28 catches and 5 touchdowns on 49 targets in Tampa’s previous six video games. He has Mike Evans, one of many tallest and strongest wideouts in soccer, whose 13 TDs helped hold Brady within the high seven within the NFL in red-zone TD share (68.9 p.c). And he has Leonard Fournette, aka “Playoff Lenny,” who has been the offensive story of this squad all through the postseason.

Fournette grew to become Tampa Bay’s beginning operating again in Week 15, and he no means seemed again. He has six complete touchdowns in that six-week span, and one rating in every of the Bucs’ three playoff video games. He averages 104.Three yards from scrimmage in these playoff wins, and he has caught 14 of 17 postseason passes for 102 yards.

However let’s not focus utterly on Tampa’s offense. This Bucs protection has been completely stellar, particularly two weeks in the past in Inexperienced Bay. Regardless of Brady throwing three interceptions on three consecutive offensive possessions, Todd Bowles’ guys stored shutting down Aaron Rodgers. With linebacker Devin White in every single place on the sphere, Lavonte David stuffing the run, and an skilled defensive position wreaking havoc on the pocket, this staff ought to no means be counted out. If Jamel Dean and Tampa’s safeties can hold Tyreek Hill from doing what he did to the Bucs earlier within the season (13-of-15 for 269 yards and three TDs), my cash’s on Kansas Metropolis successful three factors.

The BetQL NFL Finest Guess Mannequin initiatives issues to be even nearer. The Mannequin strongly recommends taking the underdog, placing a four-star score on Tampa Bay at +1.5 after arriving at a projected last rating of 28.5-27 KC. The Mannequin factors out an fascinating pattern: Tampa is 8-1 in all video games during which the entire is larger than 49.5 factors this season. Oddsmakers have listed the over/below at 56, so comply with that pattern and go together with Brady and the Bucs to at the least cowl. Don’t comply with the 53 p.c of cash (or 58 p.c of tickets) — the underdog, with the added insurance coverage of the half-point add-on, is the play of Tremendous Sunday.

Tremendous Bowl Betting Picks: Moneyline decide of the week

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-170) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I’ve to go together with the Chiefs on the moneyline, despite the fact that our BetQL Finest Guess Mannequin and I agree {that a} -170 win-loss guess provides little or no worth. In fact, some folks simply hate betting spreads. In case you’re a type of folks, your finest guess is to choose the defending champions to repeat.

Like I mentioned within the divisional spherical in addition to the AFC Championship sport, it’s merely unattainable to choose towards Kansas Metropolis on the moneyline. Patrick Mahomes is a wizard with the soccer, doing issues we no means thought doable. He’s one of many extra dominating gamers in NFL historical past. Even higher, he has the quickest, most explosive wideout in soccer in Tyreek Hill and essentially the most constantly devastating tight finish (possibly of all time) in Travis Kelce.

Winners make successful performs, and Mahomes has proved time and time once more that he’s the perfect within the NFL on the massive stage. The Chiefs completed the common season with the perfect file, in some way bettering upon its 2019 offense. Kansas Metropolis additionally enormously benefited from the rent of Steve Spagnuolo as defensive coordinator. The Chiefs cracked the highest 10 in factors allowed this season and completed fifth within the NFL in interceptions.

It’s robust to choose towards the G.O.A.T., however you’ll be able to’t argue with Mahomes going 25-1 in his previous 26 begins and Kansas Metropolis bettering upon its Tremendous Bowl-winning squad between final February and at the moment. My guess is on the Chiefs successful this 12 months, finishing the three-peat subsequent 12 months, and turning into the subsequent nice dynasty of the NFL.

Tremendous Bowl Betting Picks: Over/below decide of the week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs: UNDER 56

This sport opened at a whopping 57.5, one of many largest totals in Tremendous Bowl historical past. It stays excessive at 56, the place it settled on Jan. 27. We aren’t saying we predict this sport can be a subject goal-kicking, low-scoring dogfight. However we simply don’t see each groups flirting with 30 factors right here.

The OVER has been getting pounded the betting public, together with an unfathomable 72 p.c of sharp cash. Why? Earlier than the Buccaneers’ 31-26 win over Inexperienced Bay, six of their previous 9 video games totaled 54 or fewer factors. Earlier than the Chiefs’ 38-24 win over Buffalo, the previous six Kansas Metropolis video games with Mahomes below middle averaged 46.6 complete factors.

Viewers are used to seeing Mahomes air the ball out with magnificent ease, and the storyline being pumped is clearly previous G.O.A.T. versus new G.O.A.T, however don’t get misplaced within the offensive hoopla. These defenses each ranked within the high 10 in factors allowed this season. Solely three of the 16 Tremendous Bowls since 2005 have eclipsed 56 complete factors. Guess sensible, and separate your self from the group going UNDER.

Tremendous Bowl Participant Props: Three favourite betting picks

Tom Brady UNDER 301.5 passing yards (-115)

Brady has thrown for over 301 passing yards simply eight instances within the Buccaneers’ 20 video games this season, and he has simply 479 mixed passing yards over his previous two video games (239.5 per sport). Oddsmakers doubtless set this prop excessive due to Brady’s 345 yards in Tampa’s first assembly with KC in late November. However the Chiefs D has vastly improved within the seven video games since that contest, permitting a mean of 235.Eight passing yards per sport in that span. The Chiefs allowed juw5 three 300-yard passing performances all season and have allowed 215 aerial yards per sport of their two playoff video games. I’d be leaning UNDER on any complete above 297 passing yards on this prop. As a facet notice, I’m additionally very intrigued Brady -160 to throw one interception.

Leonard Fournette OVER 3.5 Receptions (-125)

Since turning into the Bucs’ beginning again in Week 15, Playoff Lenny has been focused Brady 27 instances. He caught 76.6 p.c of his targets throughout the common season and has hauled in 82.four p.c of his targets within the playoffs. He logged 4 catches in wild card weekend towards Washington, 5 catches within the divisional spherical towards the Saints, and 5 catches within the NFC Championship towards the Packers. Chris Jones and the Kansas Metropolis protection can be attacking the road of scrimmage early and infrequently, which implies loads of dump-offs and screens Brady in an effort to keep upright. The chances are in your favor should you guess on Fournette to usher in 4 catches.

Over 2.5 Whole Gamers with a Cross Try (+130)

This one simply appears enjoyable to me. Certain, you would guess on Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill to attain a landing (each -162), or Chris Godwin to haul in over 5.5 catches (-110), however how a lot enjoyable wouldn’t it be to money in on a large receiver cocking again on a pretend reverse or a operating again bombing a Hail Mary after a pitch? There’s really great worth on this prop, as a 3rd participant might try a cross on a pretend punt, pretend subject aim, and even only a one-play sub if Brady or Mahomes will get dinged up and desires a couple of minutes earlier than heading again onto the sphere.

I wish to personally thank each one in every of my readers this NFL season. Writing these columns every week has been a private spotlight of my life, and I sincerely hope I’ve helped make you some money all through the season. I hope you get pleasure from what must be a implausible Tremendous Bowl and that you just convey residence a bunch of cash! Keep wholesome, keep protected, and keep updated with all of us at BetQL!

For extra betting evaluation and data, head over to BetQL and take a look at our mannequin’s finest bets, sharp knowledge, and way more for each sport! Yow will discover all up to date NFL strains, spreads, and odds at BetQL!

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